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| The beach at dead high tide this evening did not look much different than a standard nor'easter. |
I went up to check the beach at high tide. Some water was making it to the upper beach, but only on the largest waves and without that much force. The waves were a lot smaller than expected but were rough and sloppy. The largest waves were only about 4-5ft+ and were not much bigger than the middle of the day, and they didn’t look very threatening. Even if we get hammered tonight, it won’t be for a long duration since winds will turn hard westerly immediately after the storm center passes, which is expected at or before breakfast time. So far the storm is indistinguishable from a common nor’easter.
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| The biggest threat from Irene will likely be freshwater flooding. |
Irene is looking more and more like a 1999 Hurricane Floyd. At sea, Floyd threatened to be a major East Coast storm until it weakened substantially. What Floyd did not deliver in wind, it delivered in rainfall when it combined with a stationary front sitting over the Appalachians. Right now, Irene is showing signs of being similar to Floyd. Irene is loosing its wind intensity and a stationary front is forming over the Appalachians. What this means is the biggest threat from Irene is likely to be excessive rainfall. The heaviest rains will likely be found in a swath from west Virginia through southern New York, including North Jersey.
Along the coast, it is very likely tropical storm conditions will occur late tonight through at least early morning. The possibilities of hurricane conditions are slim and are becoming less as the storm continues weakening. The winds should be westerly by mid-morning with rapidly drying weather conditions. By dinner time, along the coast, we will be well settled into the start of what looks to be a long period of dryness over the next 10 days.
As a write this, it’s starting to get gusty outside, but so far it sounds no different than a standard nor’easter. I expect sustained tropical storm force winds to continue through morning.
Here are some current winds along the coast . . .
Mantoloking, NJ ENE 39 gust to 46
Cape May, NJ ENE 41 gust to 49
Ocean City, MD ESE 21 gust to 28
Virginia Beach, VA NNW 27 gust to 41
So you are aware, this is not even close to the wind intensity of the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane, the worst hurricane in New Jersey in modern times. Winds in that storm were SUSTAINED at 100mph.
Here are some current winds along the coast . . .
Mantoloking, NJ ENE 39 gust to 46
Cape May, NJ ENE 41 gust to 49
Ocean City, MD ESE 21 gust to 28
Virginia Beach, VA NNW 27 gust to 41
So you are aware, this is not even close to the wind intensity of the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane, the worst hurricane in New Jersey in modern times. Winds in that storm were SUSTAINED at 100mph.
***One thing to be aware of is the possibility of a stray tornado. The tornadoes that usually occur with landfalling tropical cyclones such as this are usually weaker than cold front tornadoes. But a tornado is still a tornado.
