It was the unemployed fisherman's dream this week. Big bass, regular bass, and giant blues crashed beaches during the workday on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday as was reported to me. Oh it was great they said. Steve called me in the middle of the day Friday with a report of bluefish bite that was epic. He didn't even have to talk about the fishing- I could tell it was good just by the tone of his voice. He rattled off the stats- fish after fish, hours long, poppers. Ok this is great, I thought. Work will be over in a few hours- and I'll find some fish. As it turned out- I found no fish. I got on the beach and it had that 'it's over' look. Buggies clustered, but everyone chatting instead of fishing. I threw blind anyway for two hours and had one hit.
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| Everyone got off work but the fish took a break. Only one rod was down in a line of 20 guys on Saturday. |
Not to be deterred, I enjoyed the stories. The way I view it is that I've caught fish before, I will catch them again, and I like to be aware. So to hear about a great bite that I could not make is fine with me, I'm just glad it happened. I waited out the tide figuring it would turn on around the same time. Several boats started to coalesce- a tell tale sign. Here we go. One rod was bent. I heaved my popper into the increasing east winds, but that didn't work. The guy next to me hooked up on metal. I have no shame in copying what is working. I switched to metal and moved to the next spot. Bang! Hooked up on one crank. Ahhhh what a great feeling! But there would be no more. The fish scattered. A few more were picked up here and there, but that was pretty much it.
I tell you it will not be the unemployed fisherman's dream next week . . .
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| Here comes Sandy! |
Just when the fishing gets exciting, an exciting storm shows up. Hurricane Sandy. I don't think it will be a hurricane in the traditional sense, meaning a really intense storm that blows through in half a day, what this will be is more like a classic nor'easter. Several days of hard onshore winds and high tides. If the storm follows the center of the forecast track, New Jersey will have the longest period of strong onshore winds. What this means for the fishing is that there will not be any Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, most likely part or all of Thursday, and maybe even into Friday.
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| For those who can bring to life the difference between a hurricane and a nor'easter, it might be more accurate to think of the pending storm as more like a nor'easter. That doesn't mean it's no big deal. There probably won't be any 2x4s slicing through telephone poles, but the beach is still going to get banged up. |
Hurricane Sandy is or will likely be a hybrid storm- a storm who's gender lies in the gray area between tropical cyclone and extratropical cyclone. Those kinds of things exist, you know, and they can sometimes take on the best (or worst) qualities of the traditional storms. Instead of intense winds concentrated solely around a storm center (like a tropical cyclone) what there will be are more moderate winds diffused over a more widespread area (like an extratropical cyclone). 'Moderate winds' in this case is referring to gale force or storm force winds- and those kinds of winds over a widespread area can create a nasty sea. The sea level is already higher since the wind has been out of the east for the past few days, and there is the full moon, so the water will be up.
The data I am aware of right now (which is only 'real world' since I have been fishing all day and not on the computer) combined with intuition generates this forecast:
Wind
It will be windy. It will not be exceptionally windy. The winds along the beaches will reach gale force. Gusts my get to 60mph. A 74mph wind may occur, but that will probably not be the norm. Windy for sure, but mostly below the hurricane threshold. The problem is the strong onshore winds are going to last for at least two days, piling up the water.
The winds will be high enough to take down trees. Last year a lot of trees came down during Irene, but there was also record rain two weeks prior and during the storm which made that type of thing more likely. The ground moisture is mostly normal, and rainfall will probably not be as high with this event. Even so, the winds will be high enough to snap branches and possibly take a tree down.
Rain
Rainfall is forecast to be heavy relative to average storms, but not as heavy as Irene last year to use that example again. It's also good that rainfall has been fairly close to average for the past few weeks. The rain will have the biggest impact inland, and places that usually flood will flood, but it probably won't be as exceptional as last year.
The Beach
If your buggy conks out on the sand tomorrow, it's going to be a new reef. The forecast is for NE winds 20-30mph on Sunday, increasing all the way through Monday night. Monday evening will be the worst of it as the peak of the storm looks like it will coincide with the full moon high tide. The beach might get pretty wrecked. What will happen is all the sand piled up on the beach will get taken out, the beach will be flattened, and the bar will be way out there again. The dunes will be hit for the first time since Irene last year, but may end up looking more like after the 2009 Nor Ida nor'easter. The beach will probably look a lot different on Friday, and the new complaint may be about the uni-bar waaay out there.
Coastal Flooding
Bay flooding- especially in Raritan Bay and the Delaware Bay- may be a major issue. I would picture that everywhere that normally floods on the island from the bay will flood, and then some. With the forecast as it is, I have no doubt the water will be coming up the driveway and that Route 35 S will be impassible for several days.
If you could hear the extrasensory world of invisible communication, you'd probably be going nuts from everyone talking and sending text messages about Sandy. It's enough out here in the sensory world, but it's fine for me because I love a good storm. For the next three days, it will be just me and my rain jacket and old waders and mother nature. I can't wait to trudge up to the beach for the high tides with the wind and rain in my face. The waves crashing into the dunes and its so loud you hear nothing. I've had people tell me that is a strange thing to do, to go up there in that. And I always think if I have to explain it to you, you'll never understand.
So it's time to experience the weather. The computer will be off. The whole power system may even be off. It may just be my family and I, the dog, a candle, and a dark night with a howling wind. Fine with me.
